Been a long time – but as I type, the Yankees are on YES, tied with the Tigers down in Tampa in the 5th inning of Spring Training game. What better time to taking a stroll around the diamond comparing what the Yankees got out of each position in 2014 versus what can be expected in 2015. We’ll start with the position players, and that means Catcher Brian McCann is up first.
When McCann signed an 5 year $85 Million contract before last season, I was less than enthusiastic. He was coming off of a injury-plagued 2013, and had no managed more than 128 games played the previous three seasons. When healthy his batting line was very solid in 2011 and 2013 – combining a decent average with plus power and patience in line with his career norms. 2012 was a down year, but again, impacted by health. Heading into the season, I was reasonably confident that McCann would put up decent numbers for a catcher, but pessimistic that he would stay healthy, both in the short term, and over the life of the contact.
Despite the normal wear and tear of catching, McCann stayed healthy for most of the season – missing a few games in July with a foot injury, and a little less than two weeks for an August concussion. His 140 games played and 495 PA were the most logged since 2010 and 2008 respectively. These numbers though don’t necessarily paint the whole picture, as the Yankees were very careful to give their new investment extra rest – DH’ing him for 13 starts, getting 11 starts at first base, and moving to first for another 5 games. In total, McCann caught just 889 innings – his second lowest total since becoming a full-time starter in 2006.
Credit to the Yankees for keeping McCann’s bat in the lineup, but this is indicative of what to expect in 2015 and beyond. With Garrett Jones in the fold, McCann’s time at first will be more limited than last years. With a strong start to the season, Alex Rodriguez could limit the availability of DH at-bats as well – but betting on that is no sure thing. Expected a similar number of games caught and 15-20 games as a DH seems reasonable for 2015.
On the production side however, McCann was a disappointment for much of the season. His 94 OPS+ at season’s end ranked 7th among 9 catchers who qualified for the batting title, and represented McCann’s 2nd lowest mark during his 10 year career. McCann’s struggles were much more pronounced in the 1st half- where he managed just 10 Home Runs over 330 Plate Appearances against 13 in just 208 following the All Star Break. Similarly, McCann put up and OPS+ of 90 in the 1st half, and a much more respectable 107 in the second half. This looks like an adjustment to take advantage of Yankee Stadium’s long-ball friendly nature – just 4 of McCann’s 23 Home Runs came on the road…but also saw his Batting Average and on-base percentage plummet as the Home Runs increased.
What to expect in 2015? McCann’s bat could be a difference maker in 2015 – a return to the second half’s 107 OPS+ mark would be a strong boost to a lineup with numerous question marks – and would be in line with his last three seasons in Atlanta. Counting on that does not seem like a safe bet however – entering his age-31 season, and with all the mileage of full time catching on his body, something right around an OPS+ of 100 would seem to be a reasonable goal, and a safe expectation based on the last few season’s worth of at bats. That would be a net gain compared to last year, but a step below where the Yankees expected their $17 MM investment to settle so early into the contract.
The bigger question is just how often that bat will be in the lineup. With Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, and Carlos Beltran all taking DH at bats, and Garret Jones backing up first base, it will be more difficult this year to keep McCann’s bat in the lineup on days where he is not catching. To get maximum value out of McCann, the team needs to find a away to keep him healthy and productive through 130 games behind the plate…something he hasn’t done since 2010 at he age of 26….in other words, don’t bet on it. 110-120 games is a more realistic expectation on the high side – and the usual injury concerns for any catcher on the wrong side of thirty mean that number could easily be below 100 games this year. We’ll take a look at who stands to pick up the extra 40-60 games later in the spring once it becomes more clear who the back-up catcher will be – the team seems to be enamored of John Ryan Murphy, but Austin Romine is out of options, so both a legitimate candidates for the role.
You’ll note I didn’t speak about defense here. Recent studies on catcher defense have been groundbreaking in some of their findings – but so early on in the process, I have some difficulty putting much stock in their use in player evaluation. Certainly some of the finding agree with traditional observations and scouting reports – the Molinas are really good catchers both to the naked eye and to advanced metrics – but how much value each individual facet of a catcher’s role on defense is still tough to define with precision. Does the glovework of Jonathan Lucroy and Russell Martin make them some of the best players in the game or merely really good? That’s a question for another time though – for now, I’ll leave an overview of McCann’s defense as solidly average over the last few years – he throws out runners at a slightly below average rate (though he posted better numbers there last year) while giving up a few too many pass balls. He seems to maintain a good rapport with the Yankee pitching staff, and most pitch framing rankings have him ranked highly. Overall, my impression is that McCann does not hurt the Yankees with the glove, and will probably be a positive contributor this year. Longer term, how he ages will determine how long those positive contributions will last.
Next up on the list will be first base and Mark Teixeira.
Blog to be Named Later 