Little late for my preseason preview – but we’ll continue our trip around the field with first base this Mother’s Day. The month’s worth of games already in the books can’t hurt this analysis, so we’ll include them in this post.
Mark Teixeira’s signing before the 2009 season was a big part of the championship run that year, but it has been largely down hill since then. Seemingly unable to adjust effectively to the increasing prevalence of shifts in today’s game, Teixeira has transformed into a more and more one dimensional player since that year. Following the 2009 season, Tex boasted a .290 Batting Average. Since then (and through yesterday) he’s at .241. In 2009, Mark took advantage of the short porch in right – posting solid power numbers with 33 and 39 home runs. Since then, injuries have sapped some of that power – costing him both pop and at bats. – including limiting the first baseman to just 15 games in 2013.
What does that mean for the future? More of he same if April is any indication. While the 10 home runs Teixeira has blasted coming into play on May 10th are fantastic, and drive a 153 OPS+, they confirm his reliance on the long ball as his primary offensive weapon. His batting average is in line with last year’s .216. One other promising sign is an increased walk rate – a little more than 1 walk per 15 PA – up from 1 per 11 last year. If that proves sustainable, then Teixeira can be an asset even with a batting average in the .215 range (provided the power keeps up as well).
The biggest danger however is a recurrence of injury. Teixeira is proving unable to stay on the field every day – last year the team was ill-prepared to handle his absences – giving significant time to Kelly Johnson and Brian MCann last year = along with anther 11 starts to Chase Headley, Francisco Cervelli, and Scott Sizemore. McCann and Carlos Beltran each made their first MLB appearances at first last season – and on the whole the composite performance of first base for the Yankees was underwhelming.
To address that need this season, and provide insurance for both Teixeira and Carlos Beltran in right, the team brought in Garret Jones in the same deal that netted them Nathan Eovaldi. Jones has been right around league average the last two seasons, so expecting the same over the course of an extended Tex injuring would be reasonable for this season. Solid play from both Teixeira and fellow back up Chris Young has limited Jone’s at bats, and his batting line is thoroughly unimpressive so far. April’s results notwithstanding, somewhere around league average is probably still likely for Jones if he were getting consistent at bats – but the team would do well to leave Jones on a short leash given some of their other options.
The most attractive of those two options are at very different portions of the career spectrum. Alex Rodriguez has started hot and stayed strong so far this year – while the batting average leaves something to be desired, Alex should be able to replicate Teixeira’s expected production if Mark were to end up on the DL. His defense in his first start at first could best be described as stiff – but with just 9 innings there during games that matter, drawing any conclusions would be fool-hearty. Alex’s best role with the team is DH – but if he can handle first it would also allow Beltran the occasional DH start – sure to keep the outfielder healthier and hopefully reignite his bat.
Longer term , there is optimism at first base in the person of Greg Bird. Bird has hit at every level of the minors since being drafted in 2011 (besides a rough 4 games to start his career that here) – and added a strong Arizona Fall League performance at the end of last season. He opened eyes this spring as well – but has scuffled so far his year in a return to AA Trenton. It is clear he could use some more seasoning in the minors, but a few could months could have in the picture late in the year, and knocking on the door of the big leagues in 2016.
All in all, the Yankees have reason for cautious optimism at first base. Teixeira’s power surge, plus realistic backup options in Jones and Rodriguez paint a rosier picture than last year. While expecting vintage 2009 Tex this season and beyond would be unrealistic, it should be safe to predict average at worst production from the spot this year, with the potential for plus production likely if Tex can sustain his walk rate and maintain strong power numbers.
Blog to be Named Later 